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October 4, 2025

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The gold price continued to move this week, approaching the US$3,900 per ounce level and setting a fresh all-time high on the back of a US government shutdown.

The closure came after Congress failed to reach an agreement on a spending bill ahead of the new American fiscal year, which began on Wednesday (October 1).

Democrats and Republicans are at odds as Democrats push for changes to the bill, including an extension to billions of dollars in Obamacare subsidies; meanwhile, President Donald Trump has threatened thousands of permanent layoffs, not just temporary furloughs.

This shutdown is the 15th since 1981, and according to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, it could continue on until next week as the two sides negotiate. The longest government shutdown happened between 2018 and 2019, during Trump’s first presidency, and lasted for 35 days.

Part of the reason market watchers see this shutdown as significant is that it will delay the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report, which was set to come out on Friday (October 3).

Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, September consumer price index data, which is scheduled for publication on October 15, may also not be on time.

The US Federal Reserve is due to meet later this month, from October 28 to 29, and normally would use this and other data to help make its decision on interest rates. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, and CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool currently shows strong expectations for another 25 basis point reduction at the next gathering.

Although gold took a breather after nearing US$3,900, it remains historically high, with many market watchers suggesting US$4,000 is in the cards in the near term.

In the longer term, some experts have even loftier expectations — for example, Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozenwajg sees a path to a five-figure gold price.

‘It’s not going to happen under normal circumstances — it’s not going to happen when everything’s going great. But by the end of this cycle, will we get there? I think we probably will,’ he said.

It’s also worth touching on silver, which pushed past the US$48 per ounce mark this week. Unlike gold, silver has not yet broken its all-time high during this bull run — it’s pushing up against uncharted territory, raising questions about how high it can go this time.

On that note, David Morgan of the Morgan Report shared several factors that would tell him the market is reaching a top. Here’s what he said:

‘You want to look at exchange-traded fund flows like the GDX, GDXJ, SIL and SILJ. At the same time, more important than almost anything is trading volume at the stock level. When mid-tier and smaller producers suddenly trade three, four or five times their normal daily volume, and prices are rising, that isn’t random. That’s retail money coming back into the market, and fund buying and probably institutions.

‘One more layer of confirmation is relative to performance. When the mining sector starts to outperform the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX), which it has, and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC), which it has, it’s a telltale sign that the generalist money, not just the hard money crowd, is beginning to rotate in.’

Bullet briefing — CEO shakeup at Barrick, Newmont

Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) and Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) both announced major executive changes this week, with the CEOs of both companies departing.

Barrick’s Mark Bristow unexpectedly stepped down from his position on Monday (September 29) after nearly seven years at the helm of the firn. His exit, which was effective immediately, comes after big changes at the firm, including a shift toward copper and an asset divestment program designed to hone the company’s focus on tier-one assets.

It also follows persistent issues in Mali, where Barrick lost control of its gold-mining complex and had 3 metric tons of the yellow metal seized by the government.

According to Reuters, Bristow’s handling of that ongoing situation was the final straw that prompted the company’s board to push for a change in leadership.

Newmont announced the retirement of Tom Palmer the same day. He had held the position since 2019, and will be succeeded by the company’s president and COO. Analysts note that Newmont had been signaling that a succession plan was in the works.

Similar to Barrick, the company has been in the midst of an extensive program geared at streamlining its portfolio. Newmont acquired Newcrest Mining in 2023, and in February 2024 announced a program to sell non-core assets. It completed the program in April of this year, but has continued to make portfolio adjustments, and to pursue other cost-saving measures.

Market watchers note that despite efforts to boost efficiency, Barrick and Newmont have both failed to match the performance of their peers during today’s bull market.

Year-on-year share price performance of major gold miners.

Chart via Google Finance.

With gold-mining companies conscious of not repeating missteps made during the precious metal’s last runup, investors will no doubt be keen to see how they perform under new management.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

President Donald Trump has an almost flawless record on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket this year, a streak that has delivered crucial moments of relief to the government as it fights hundreds of lawsuits challenging the president’s agenda.

The Supreme Court has ruled in Trump’s favor on government cuts, nationwide injunctions, immigration policies and more, leading the White House to tout what it recently counted as 21 victories before the high court.

Those victories are, however, temporary. The upcoming term, which begins Monday, will allow the justices to begin weighing the full merits of some of these court disputes and ultimately cement or undo key parts of the Trump agenda.

Jonathan Adler, a William & Mary Law School professor, attributed the interim wins to the Supreme Court’s desire to narrow the judicial branch’s role in policymaking.

Speaking during a Federalist Society panel this week, Adler said the high court’s thinking might be that ‘lower courts are doing too much. We’re going to scale that back because it’s not our place, and it’s for the executive branch and the legislative branch to figure that out.’

The Trump administration has only challenged about one-fifth of the adverse rulings it has received from the lower courts. Adler said Solicitor General John Sauer, who represents the government, is strategically selecting which cases to bring to the high court. 

‘If you go through them, setting Humphrey’s Executor stuff slightly to the side, what they all have in common is that there’s a kind of clear argument that … district courts were a little too aggressive here,’ Adler said.

He acknowledged that some might have a different view, that the Trump administration has been ‘too muscular’ and that court intervention is a necessary check.

The emergency docket, sometimes known as the shadow or interim docket, allows the Trump administration or plaintiffs to ask the Supreme Court to quickly intervene in lawsuits and temporarily pause lower court rulings. The process can take a couple of days, weeks or months, and is viewed as a much speedier, albeit temporary, way to secure court relief than if the high court were to fully consider the merits of a case, which can include a long briefing schedule and oral arguments.

The Supreme Court’s emergency docket this year has been extraordinarily active. Attorney Kannon Shanmugam, who has argued dozens of cases before the high court, said Trump’s high volume of executive actions is partly the reason for that.

‘[An increase in emergency motions] coincides with the rise of executive orders and other forms of unilateral executive action really as the primary form of lawmaking in our country with the disappearance of Congress, and that has posed enormous challenges for the court,’ Shanmugam said.

Through the emergency docket, the Supreme Court has greenlit Trump’s mass firings of career employees and high-profile terminations of Democratic appointees. It has curtailed nationwide injunctions and cleared the way for controversial deportations and immigration stops. The high court has said the government can, for now, withhold billions of dollars in foreign aid and discharge transgender service members from the military.

In other instances, parties on both sides in a court fight have construed Supreme Court outcomes as wins.

In one such order, the Supreme Court said the Trump administration must attempt to return Salvadoran migrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia, whom the government admitted in court to improperly deporting to a Salvadoran prison. But at the same time, the high court noted that district court judges must also be deferential to the executive branch’s authority over foreign policy.

Similarly, the high court said the administration must allow deportees under the Alien Enemies Act a reasonable chance to fight their removal through habeas corpus petitions. The justices have not yet weighed in on the merits of Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act, one of his most aggressive deportation tactics, which the president employed to swiftly remove alleged Tren de Aragua members.

Conservative lawyer Carrie Severino, president of the legal watchdog JCN, said one criterion the Supreme Court considers when making fast decisions is whether parties are at risk of irreparable harm.

As an example, Severino pointed to the Supreme Court recently allowing Trump to fire Biden-appointed FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, a case that the high court is now using as a vehicle to revisit in the coming months the 90-year precedent set by Humphrey’s Executor v. United States.

Severino said, ‘If one assumes, ‘Okay, if Trump’s right,’ then this is a serious burden on the government to have a good chunk of their four years being taken up with not being able to actually staff the government as they want to. If Trump’s wrong, then Commissioner Slaughter should have been in that position, and they can remedy that by providing her back pay.’

‘When you’re balancing those types of harms, this is the kind of case where the government’s going to have a leg up,’ Severino said.

In a small defeat for Trump on Wednesday, the Supreme Court declined to allow the president to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and instead said it would hear her case in January. The move was a deviation from the court’s typical posture and underscored its unique view on the Federal Reserve compared with other agencies.

The Supreme Court’s majority has often split along ideological lines and offered little reason for its emergency decisions. This differs from final orders from the court, which can be lengthy and include numerous concurring opinions and dissents.

Attorney Benjamin Mizer, who served as a top DOJ official during the Biden administration, cautioned during the panel that the Supreme Court could reverse its shadow docket positions down the road.

‘As cases reach the court on the merits, we shouldn’t presume that the administration will win them all,’ Mizer said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS